New tool helps predict dementia in elderly
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A new risk assessment index can help identify older adults who are likely to develop dementia within the next 6 years, according to a report in the online issue of the journal Neurology.
“This new risk index could be very important both for research and for people at risk of developing dementia and their families,” lead author Dr. Deborah E. Barnes said in a statement.
“It could be used to identify people at high risk for dementia for studies on new drugs or prevention methods,” she continued. “The tool could also identify people who have no sign of dementia but should be monitored closely, allowing them to begin treatment as soon as possible, and potentially helping maintain their thinking and memory skills and quality of life longer.”
Barnes, from the University of California, San Francisco, and colleagues developed a dementia risk index by analyzing data from 3375 subjects who were followed for incident dementia as part of the Cardiovascular Health Cognition Study.
Overall, 14 of subjects developed dementia within 6 years, the report indicates. Further analysis of the data yielded several factors that were predictive of dementia.
Risk factors included in the final dementia risk index were: older age, poor cognitive test performance, low body mass index, the gene mutation that increases the risk of Alzheimer’s disease (APOE 4 alleles), white matter brain disease or ventricular enlargement on MRI, carotid artery thickening on ultrasound sound), prior bypass surgery, slow physical performance, and no alcohol consumption.
According to the report, just 4 percent of subjects with low scores developed dementia during follow-up compared with 23 percent and 56 percent of those with moderate and high scores, respectively.
The authors note that while the current index is useful in predicting dementia, they are now working to develop an even simpler test with comparable accuracy. Also, they state, it will be important to assess the predictive value of the current index in other populations.
SOURCE: Neurology, May13, 2009.
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